Home PageInvestment - The Dodwell Fantasy Fund

 

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THE MONEY MAKING RACE IS ON

- Which is best, a CASH DEPOSIT account, or owning a SHARE of businesses?
Follow the 5 year DODWELL FANTASY FUND, to find out.

If you are a newcomer to share investment, our Fantasy Fund will enable you to follow progress, and learn about investment. If you are already an experienced business investor, try to beat the performance of this Fund. Ten companies were carefully selected by a successful fund manager for the start of 2009. Although this fund has a simple structure and consists of fewer companies than would be normal for an equity portfolio, a spread of risk has been achieved. The companies are in six different industry sectors, most trade internationally and all are profitable ( 2009 pre-tax profits totalled £52,262 million ). Importantly, each company currently pays a dividend to their shareholders, although it is expected that the current recession will force two to reduce the amount paid during 2009. A nominal starting sum of £100,000 has been used, but even if this were higher or lower, the percentage return would be similar. The fund manager uses long term principles, so the intention is to hold the original ten investments throughout the five year period.

The dividend income received (shown on this page) will be brought up to date at intervals, but the capital valuation may not be revised until each year end. However, share prices are readily available, so it will be easy for anyone to calculate the valuation at any time. After all, to become a sucessful investor, good number skills are essential. - -_- - (Rgio Jan. 2009)


THE RACE POSITIONS
 
1 Jan 2009
1 Jan 2010

1 Jan 2011

1 Jan 2012

20 Apr 2012

CASH DEPOSIT          
Capital
£100,000
£100,000
£100,000
£100,000
£100,000
Bank or Building Society account.
5 year term, fixed rate 4·50% gross (3·60% net)
Interest (2010)
 
£ 3,600

£ 3,600

£ 3,600

£ 3,600

  (2011)    

£ 3,600

£ 3,600

£ 3,600

  (2012)      

£ 3,600

£ 3,600

  (2013)        
  (2014)          
TOTAL
 
£103,600
£107,200
£110,800
£110,800
   
NEEDED - to maintain initial purchasing value          
Inflation (Retail Price Index)
£100,000
£103,713
£108,996
£113,279
£114,612
   
DODWELL FANTASY EQUITY FUND          
Fund Value
£100,024
£128,683
£128,527
£121,818
£127,045
2009 Dividends Received
 
£5,163
£5,163
£5,163
£5,163
2010 Dividends Received
   

£4,584

£4,584

£4,584

2011 Dividends Received
   

 

£8,861

£8,861

2012 Dividends Received
       
£1,190
Less Rights Issue Cost *

 

- £1,588

- £1,588

- £1,588

- £1,588
TOTAL
 
£132,258

£136,687

£138,838

£145,256

NOTES.
* Rights Issue. Additional purchase of HSBC rights issue shares (£1,587.50) in March 2009.
Retail Price Index, Jan 2009 = 210·1, Jan 2011 = 229·0.


THE DODWELL FANTASY FUND
- - -Portfolio Valuation

 
1 January 2009
 
  20 April 2012
Company Name
Holding
(Shares)

Share Price

Value
Present Annual Dividend
 
 Holding
(Shares)
Share Price
Value
 
   

p

£
£
 
 
 p
 £
 
- BANCO SANTANDER
1563
639.79
10,000
691
 
1563
389.63
6,090
 
- BG
1045
957
10,001
109
 
1045
1415.5
14,792
 
- BP
1901
526
9,999
559
 
1901
434.75
8,265
 
- BRITISH AM TOBACCO
556
1800
10,008
388
 
556
3244
18,037
 
- HSBC
1511
662
10,003
765
 
2136
555.75
11,871
 
- IMPERIAL TOBACCO
541
1850
10,009
358
 
541
2546
13,774
 
- INTNL. POWER
4162
240.25
9,999
456
 
4162
417.25
17,366
 
- MARKS & SPENCER
4657
214.75
10,001
1048
 
4657
362.5
16,882
 
- SCOT & SOUTHERN
822
1217
10,004
511
 
822
1342
11,031
 
- TESCO
2778
360
10,001
313
 
2778
321.75
8,938
 
   
TOTAL
£100,024
5,198
   
£127,045
 
                   
           
2009 Dividend Income
5,163
 
           
2010 Dividend Income
4,584
 
           
2011 Dividend Income
8,233
 
           
2012 Dividend Income
1,190
 
           
Less rights issue cost
- 1,588
 
           
Total

£145,256

+45.22%
On 20th March 2009 there was a rights issue for HSBC Holdings plc.
5 new shares were offered to existing shareholders for every 12 held at 254 pence.
The fund was therefore able to buy 625 new shares for £1587.50.
Holding now 2136 shares, total cost £11,590.


THE DODWELL FANTASY FUND- - - DIVIDEND INCOME RECEIVED- - -2009

     
Increase
£
   
9-Jan-2009
  MARKS & SPENCER
+0%
386.53
14-Jan-2009
  HSBC
+6%
186.79
1-Feb-2009
  BANCO SANTANDER
n/c
140.94
20-Feb-2009
  IMP TOBACCO
n/c
228.30
9-Mar-2009
  BP
+44% *
186.63
27-Mar-2009
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+9%
162.76
1-May-2009
  BANCO SANTANDER
n/c
289.95
6-May-2009
  BR AM TOBACCO
+29%
342.50
6-May-2009
  HSBC
n/c
103.83
22-May-2009
  BG
+14%
68.45
8-Jun-2009
  BP
+40% *
182.19
9-Jul-2009
  HSBC
n/c
103.37
9-Jul-2009
  INTL POWER
+16%
357.52
10-Jul-2009
  MARKS & SPENCER
-33%
442.42
10-Jul-2009
  TESCO
+9%
233.07
1-Aug-2009
  BANCO SANTANDER
n/c
145.67
19-Aug-2009
  IMP TOBACCO
n/c
113.61
8-Sep-2009
  BP
+21% *
161.64
11-Sep-2009
  BG
+20%
58.73
25-Sep-2009
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+9%
379.76
9-Sep-2009
  BRIT AM TOBACCO
+26%
155.12
7-Oct-2009
  HSBC
n/c

107.64

29-Oct-2009
  INTL. POWER
+19%
176.89
1-Nov-2009
  BANCO SANTANDER
n/c

136.17

7-Dec-2009
  BP
-2%

161.81

18-Dec-2009
  TESCO
+9%
108.06
 
TOTAL
£5,163.30

n/c - Not comparable.
* - Gains are almost entirely due to favourable currency movements.

 


THE DODWELL FANTASY FUND- - - DIVIDEND INCOME RECEIVED- - -2010

     
Increase
£
   
8-Jan-2010
  MARKS & SPENCER
-34%
256.14
13-Jan-2010
  HSBC
n/c
105.64
1-Feb-2010
  BANCO SANTANDER
n/c
134.48
19-Feb-2010
  IMP TOBACCO
+23%
281.32
8-Mar-2010
  BP
+0%
164.99
26-Mar-2010
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+6%
172.62
1-May-2010
  BANCO SANTANDER
-15%
240.23
5-May-2010
  HSBC
n/c
138.31
6-May-2010
  BR AM TOBACCO
+16%
398.10
21-May-2010
  BG
+3%
70.33
21-Jun-2010
  BP
-100%
Cancelled
24-Jun-2010
  INTL POWER
-4%
344.61
7-Jul-2010
  HSBC
+0%
113.62
9-Jul-2010
  TESCO
+9%
254.46
16-Jul-2010
  MARKS & SPENCER
+0%
442.42
1-Aug-2010
  BANCO SANTANDER
-1%
240.00
20-Aug-2010
  IMP TOBACCO
+16%
131.46
Sep-2010
  BP
-100%
0.00
10-Sep-2010
  BG
n/c
66.36
24-Sep-2010
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+6%
402.78
29-Sep-2010
  BRIT AM TOBACCO
+19%
184.59
6-Oct-2010
  HSBC
+0%

107.96

28-Oct-2010
  INTL. POWER
+3%
182.71
1-Nov-2010
  BANCO SANTANDER
-2%

129.87

Dec-2009
  BP
-100%

0.00

24-Dec-2010
  TESCO
+12%
121.40
   
TOTAL
 

£4584.26


n/c - Not comparable.

 


THE DODWELL FANTASY FUND- - - DIVIDEND INCOME RECEIVED- - -2011

     
Increase
£
   
12-Jan-2011
  HSBC
+0%
109.33
14-Jan-2011
  MARKS & SPENCER
+13%
288.73
1-Feb-2011
  BANCO SANTANDER
-8%
123.83
18-Feb-2011
  IMP TOBACCO
+15%
324.60
25-Feb-2011
  INTL. POWER
n/a
3,829.04
25-Mar-2011
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+7%
184.13
28-Mar-2011
  BP
-50%
82.45
1-May-2011
  BANCO SANTANDER
+3%
256.17
5-May-2011
  BR AM TOBACCO
+13%
450.36
5-May-2011
  HSBC
+20%
154.78
20-May-2011
  BG
+13%
76.39
23-Jun-2011
  INTL POWER
n/c
271.36
28-Jun-2011
  BP
n/c
81.38
6-Jul-2011
  HSBC
+13%
120.35
8-Jul-2011
  TESCO
+10%
280.30
15-Jul-2011
  MARKS & SPENCER
+14%
502.96
1-Aug-2011
  BANCO SANTANDER
+7%
149.02
19-Aug-2011
  IMP TOBACCO
+16%
152.02
8-Sep-2011
  BG
+10%
70.54
20-Sep-2011
  BP
n/c
83.17
23-Sep-2011
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+7%
432.37
28-Sep-2011
  BRIT AM TOBACCO
+15%
211.84
6-Oct-2011
  HSBC
+13%

124.11

27-Oct-2011
  INTL. POWER
n/c
158.99
1-Nov-2011
  BANCO SANTANDER
+1%

131.14

Dec-2011
  BP
n/c

84.96

-Dec-2011
  TESCO
+6%
128.62
   
TOTAL
 

8860.59


n/c - Not comparable.

 


THE DODWELL FANTASY FUND- - - DIVIDEND INCOME RECEIVED- - -2012

     
Increase
£
   
13-Jan-2012
  MARKS & SPENCER
+0%
288.73
18-Jan-2012
  HSBC
+13%
124.50
1-Feb-2012
  BANCO SANTANDER
-1%
120.34
17-Feb-2012
  IMP TOBACCO
+12%
362.47
23-Mar-2012
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+7%
197.28
30-Mar-2012
  BP
+14%
96.87
         
1-May-2011
  BANCO SANTANDER
+3%
256.17
5-May-2011
  BR AM TOBACCO
+13%
450.36
5-May-2011
  HSBC
+20%
154.78
20-May-2011
  BG
+13%
76.39
23-Jun-2011
  INTL POWER
n/c
271.36
28-Jun-2011
  BP
n/c
81.38
6-Jul-2011
  HSBC
+13%
120.35
8-Jul-2011
  TESCO
+10%
280.30
15-Jul-2011
  MARKS & SPENCER
+14%
502.96
1-Aug-2011
  BANCO SANTANDER
+7%
149.02
19-Aug-2011
  IMP TOBACCO
+16%
152.02
8-Sep-2011
  BG
+10%
70.54
20-Sep-2011
  BP
n/c
83.17
23-Sep-2011
  SCOT & SOUTHERN
+7%
432.37
28-Sep-2011
  BRIT AM TOBACCO
+15%
211.84
6-Oct-2011
  HSBC
+13%

124.11

27-Oct-2011
  INTL. POWER
n/c
158.99
1-Nov-2011
  BANCO SANTANDER
+1%

131.14

Dec-2011
  BP
n/c

84.96

-Dec-2011
  TESCO
+6%
128.62
   
TOTAL
 

8860.59


n/c - Not comparable.

 


The portfolio selection was made on the following basis.

Ten shares were chosen. That is really the minimum number for a sensible spread of company risk. One complete failure would only represent ten per cent of the fund.

To simplify matters, there is no weighting, so on 1st January 2009, the initial investment was allocated equally between all ten companies.

To spread risk there are six different industry sectors. All of these except General Retailing, are reasonably resiliant to economic cycles.

They are very large, profitable companies, with excellent track records. The combined pre-tax profits of all ten companies at the end of 2008 was £52 billion. Considerable sums were consequently paid in tax to the UK Government and the companies provide jobs for hundreds of thousands of people. The market value of the ten companies on 1st January 2009, was £344 billion. Historically, dividends have been responsible for more than half the return on equities. All the companies selected for investment, are currently paying a share of their profits to the business owners, through dividends. Only HSBC and Marks & Spencer are anticipated to reduce their dividends, due to the difficult business conditions.

Although all except Banco Santander are UK based companies, most trade throughout the world. Therefore, both the commercial and currency risk is spread by their foreign activities and earnings. There will be a fluctuating effect on dividend income, in respect of the companies preparing their accounts in overseas currencies. A weaker £ against the Euro will magnify the dividend for Banco Santander's UK shareholders, and a weaker £ against the US$ will do the same for BP and HSBC's UK shareholders. The effect of this was shown recently by BP's 2008 final dividend. The Company reports in US$ and the dividend was increased by 4%. However, after currency conversion, UK shareholders received a dividend that had increased by 44%




PROBABILITY OF SHARES BEATING DEPOSITS AND BONDS - 1899 to 2008

Period of Investment
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years
10 years
18 years
Probability of Shares
outperforming Deposits
67%
70%
74%
74%
92%
99%
Probability of Shares
outperforming Bonds
69%
76%
77%
75%
81%
90%

During the past 110 years, has it been better to invest in Shares, Bonds, or Deposits (savings accounts)?

Barclays Capital, and their predesessor De Zoete Wedd, have compiled an annual Equity-Gilt Study for over a century. When the information for that period, which included world wars and many recessions, is divided into samples of various consecutive years of investment, a clear perspective emerges.

If anyone had invested in shares representing the whole London stock market, over any period of 2 consecutive years, there was a 67% probability of shares beating deposits. In other words, there was a 1 in 3 chance, that savings accounts would be better that shares over any 2 year period.

When the period of investment is extended to 10 years, there has been only an 8% chance that deposits performed better that shares.